J.B. Handley, j.b. handley blog, 30 May 2020

For anyone willing to look, there are so many facts that tell the true story, and it goes something like this:

Knowing what we know today about COVID-19’s Infection Fatality Rate, asymmetric impact by age and medical condition, non-transmissibility by asymptomatic people and in outdoor settings, near-zero fatality rate for children, and the basic understanding of viruses through Farr’s law, locking down society was a bone-headed policy decision so devastating to society that historians may judge it as the all-time worst decision ever made. Worse, as these clear facts have become available, many policy-makers haven’t shifted their positions, despite the fact that every hour under any stage of lockdown has a domino-effect of devastation to society. Meanwhile, the media—with a few notable exceptions—is oddly silent on all the good news. Luckily, an unexpected group of heroes across the political landscape—many of them doctors and scientists—have emerged to tell the truth, despite facing extreme criticism and censorship from an angry mob desperate to continue fighting an imaginary war.

My goal is to engage in known facts. You, the reader, can decide if all of these facts, when you put them together, equate to the story above.

  • Fact #1: The Infection Fatality Rate for COVID-19 is somewhere between 0.07-0.20%, in line with seasonal flu
  • Fact #2: The risk of dying from COVID-19 is much higher than the average IFR for older people and those with co-morbidities, and much lower than the average IFR for younger healthy people, and nearing zero for children
  • Fact #3: People infected with COVID-19 who are asymptomatic (which is most people) do NOT spread COVID-19
  • Fact #4: Emerging science shows no spread of COVID-19 in the community (shopping, restaurants, barbers, etc.)
  • Fact #5: Published science shows COVID-19 is NOT spread outdoors
  • Fact #6: Science shows masks are ineffective to halt the spread of COVID-19, and The WHO recommends they should only be worn by healthy people if treating or living with someone with a COVID-19 infection
  • Fact #7: There’s no science to support the magic of a six-foot barrier
  • Fact #8: The idea of locking down an entire society had never been done and has no supportable science, only theoretical modeling
  • Fact #9: The epidemic models of COVID-19 have been disastrously wrong, and both the people and the practice of modeling has a terrible history
  • Fact #10: The data shows that lockdowns have NOT had an impact on the course of the disease.
  • Fact #11: Florida locked down late, opened early, and is doing fine, despite predictions of doom
  • Fact #12: New York’s above average death rate appears to be driven by a fatal policy error combined with aggressive intubations.
  • Fact #13: Public health officials and disease epidemiologists do NOT consider the other negative societal consequences of lockdowns
  • Fact #14: There is a predictive model for the viral arc of COVID-19, it’s called Farr’s Law, and it was discovered over 100 years ago
  • Fact #15: The lockdowns will cause more death and destruction than COVID-19 ever did
  • Fact #16: All these phased re-openings are utter nonsense with no science to support them, but they will all be declared a success